Beauclair has just submitted its reports on November’s retail sales to its Business Improvement District (BID) clients. Most city centres that we monitor showed strong recovery in September and October, with sales ahead of the same months in 2019. November’s figures, however, showed that this recovery might have been stalling, even before the Omicron variant emerged. Although most cites showed a monthly growth in sales in November, the rate of growth was slower than in the pre-Christmas shopping period in 2019. For almost all cities, sales levels in November 2021 dropped below November 2019.
About Beauclair’s data
Beauclair provides a monthly data to subscription to BIDs, local authorities and chambers of commerce. The data breaks down sales for client-specified areas by retail sector as well as including information on average transaction values, customer numbers and sales per customer. Our standard subscription includes comparisons with peer cities and data on the affluence of customers. All of our clients to date have also chosen to work with us to break down customers into specific regions of origin and to monitor how well their retail district is doing in attracting customers from these regions.
Overall performance
Sales levels in earlier months for most of the cities that we monitor had risen above 2019 levels (not inflation-adjusted). The best performing cities had reached this milestone in June. The laggards were often larger or wealthier cities (wealthier people cut their spending by more than less affluent people).
In absolute terms, sales continued to grow in November for most cities but every city that we monitor went backwards in relative terms, i.e. sales levels compared to the same month in 2019 weakened in November. For the majority, sales levels in November 2019 were lower than November 2021.
Sector performance
Sector level data paints a complex picture. Fashion and General Retail grew their share of sales, while Food & Drink’s share of sales shrank. This is the normal pattern for the run up to the Christmas period when the growth of gift shopping outpaces the growth in Food & Drink.
However, there is still evidence of a lockdown hangover. Despite their monthly growth, in most cities Fashion and General Retail still lagged their November 2019 performance. Conversely, despite its shrinking share of total sales, the Food & Drink sector was significantly ahead of its 2019 performance. We have discussed in a previous blog the importance of Food & Drink in driving the recovery of city centre retail.
The Travel & Accommodation Sector continues to suffer. In one of our client cities, sales in this sector in November 2021 are less than 50% of the November 2019 level.
Conclusion
With the spread of the Omicron virus, city centres are hitting choppy waters at precisely the worst time of the year. Beauclair will continue to keep a close eye on the details of the data for our clients. A particular focus for December will be to monitor the impact of the Omicron regulations on cities’ ability to draw customers from out-of-town and particular wealthy suburbs.