Consumer confidence has fallen, and retail sales weakened; leading to a more subdued Christmas forecast from Diane Wehrle. Making the remaining opportunities even more crucial, read on to find out more.
Outlook for Christmas 2024 trading period
With the return to low inflation, wage inflation that has been exceeding price inflation for a number of months and low unemployment it was hoped that the Christmas trading period this year would be a more vibrant affair than last year when consumers were cash strapped due to high inflation and interest rates. However, in recent months in anticipation of the Budget and then post Budget, both consumer confidence and retail sales have weakened; consumer confidence as measured by GFK reached -21 in October versus -13 in August and retail sales growth in October as measured by the BRC was modest at just +0.3% versus +1.7% in September.
The drop in consumer confidence strongly suggests that spending over the remainder of the year is likely to be more muted than originally forecast. Sales in towns and cities in November and December 2023 averaged -3.2% from 2022, and the original forecast was for a modest annual rise of +2% over the same two months this year. However, the likelihood that reduced consumer confidence will adversely impact spending means that the increase in spending from month to month is forecast to be slightly lower than previously anticipated. Rather than a +12% increase in November from October, spending is now forecast to rise by +11% over the month, by +34% from November to December (previously +35%).
These slightly more modest rises in spending from month to month over November and December means that the annual change in spending over these two months is now forecast to be flat from 2023 (-0.03%). This average is based on an annual drop in spending in towns and cities of -0.4% in November and a modest annual rise in December of just +0.4%.
| % change in spending from previous month | ||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 original forecast | 2024 revised forecast | |
| Nov | 7% | 10% | 12% | 11% |
| Dec | 35% | 33% | 35% | 34% |
| Year on year % change in spend | |||
| 2023* | 2024 forecast – original | 2024 forecast – revised | |
| Nov | -2.2% | 1.5% | -0.4% |
| Dec | -4.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Average | -3.2% | 2.0% | -0.03% |
*Source: Beauclair
Black Friday
Black Friday is an established and key point in the annual retail trading calendar, and for consumers the week of Black Friday marks the start of the Christmas trading period.
Beauclair data identified that in 2022 and 2023 spending in towns and cities during the week of Black Friday rose by +12% and +14% respectively from the week before, compared with a week on week increase in the previous week of just +3% in 2022, and a week on week decrease of -2% in 2023.
Consumers respond positively to price reductions offered during the Black Friday period, and many take the opportunity to purchase Christmas gifts at a lower price point. Indeed, the drop in consumer confidence over the last few months this year is likely to lead to consumers becoming more price conscious, which in turn may drive them towards greater purchasing over Black Friday in order to secure gifts whilst discounts are available. Furthermore, Black Friday this year (on 29th November 2024) is a week later than in 2023 (24th November 2023), which means that it falls on payday for many people. This may provide shoppers with greater available budget to spend over the Black Friday week and on the day itself. These factors suggest that spending in towns and cities will increase on Black Friday from 2023, both over the week as a whole (for those who are able to make purchases ahead of payday) and on Black Friday itself.
Spending in towns and cities during Black Friday week is forecast to rise by +15% from the week before and by +1.5% from Black Friday week in 2023. On Black Friday itself (29th November) spending in UK towns and cities is forecast to be +27% higher than on the previous Friday (22nd November) and +2% higher than on Black Friday in 2023 (24th November 2023).
| Black Friday – spending in UK towns and cities | |||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 – Forecast | |
| Black Friday – WOW % change | 27% | 23% | 27% |
| Black Friday – YOY % change | -7% | 2% | |
| Black Friday week – WOW % change | 12% | 14% | 15% |
| Black Friday week – YOY % change | -5% | 1.5% | |
Pre Christmas
The month of December is clearly the peak trading period in the year, however, the trend in spending within the month is influenced by Black Friday which creates a “dumb bell” effect. Data from Beauclair for spending in December in both 2022 and 2023 demonstrates this, with a noticeable uplift in spending in the week of Black Friday and the week after, which is then followed by smaller increases in spending over the subsequent two weeks. Spending then ramps up significantly in the week leading up to Christmas, dropping away substantially in the week post Christmas.
The forecast for December 2024 reflects this, with an anticipated rise in spending in towns and cities of +15% in Black Friday week from the week before, followed by modest rises of +8% and +7% in the subsequent two weeks. In the week leading up to Christmas 2024, spending is forecast to rise by +25% from the week before, then dropping by -35% post Christmas.
The slightly more modest rise in spending of +20% in the week leading up to Christmas that is forecast this year versus +25% in the same week in 2023 is due to two trading days occurring in Christmas week this year (23rd and 24th December). Likewise, the drop in spending during the week of Christmas (wb 23rd December) is forecast to be more modest than last year, at -35% versus -50% in 2023.
| Week on week % change in spending in UK towns and cities | |||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 Forecast | |||
| 14/11/2022 | 3% | 13/11/2023 | -2% | ||
| 21/11/2022* | 12% | 20/11/2023* | 14% | 18/11/2024 | 3% |
| 28/11/2022 | 11% | 27/11/2023 | 9% | 25/11/2024** | 15% |
| 05/12/2022 | 6% | 04/12/2023 | 5% | 02/12/2024 | 8% |
| 12/12/2022 | 5% | 11/12/2023 | 9% | 09/12/2024 | 7% |
| 19/12/2022 | 13% | 18/12/2023 | 25% | 16/12/2024 | 20% |
| 26/12/2022 | -43% | 25/12/2023 | -50% | 23/12/2024 | -35% |
*Week of Black Friday in 2022 and 2023
**Week of Black Friday in 2024
Pre Christmas Week – Peak shopping day
The week leading up to Christmas Day is absolutely key to the success of the Christmas trading period; in 2023 spending on Friday 22nd December was +44% higher than the previous Friday and even on Saturday 23rd December – just two days before Christmas – spending was 5% higher than the same day in the week before.
This year, Christmas Day is on Wednesday, and therefore it is expected that the peak shopping day in towns and cities will be Saturday 21st December 2024. Being four days ahead of Christmas Day, this enables shoppers to make trips to town centres to purchase gifts and still have enough leeway to be able to travel to their Christmas destination.
Therefore, on Saturday 21st December it is expected that spending in towns and cities will be +32% higher than the previous Saturday (14th December 2024) and +25% higher than on the same day in 2023 (23rd December 2023).
| Week on week % change in spending in towns and cities from Saturday 16th December 2023 | ||
| Sat | 16/12/2023 | 7% |
| Sun | 17/12/2023 | 11% |
| Mon | 18/12/2023 | 22% |
| Tue | 19/12/2023 | 26% |
| Wed | 20/12/2023 | 38% |
| Thu | 21/12/2023 | 52% |
| Fri | 22/12/2023 | 44% |
| Sat | 23/12/2023 | 5% |
| Sun | 24/12/2023 | -7% |
| Forecast for Saturday 21st December 2024 | |
| Week on week increase (% change from Sat 14th Dec 2024) | 32% |
| Annual increase (% change from Sat 23rd Dec 2023) | 25% |
Post Christmas Days
In the past Boxing Day was the peak post Christmas shopping day, but over the last decade or so the peak shopping day has steadily shifted to 27th December. There are two key drivers of this; firstly the growth of blended families over the last few decades has meant that for many people Boxing Day is a key opportunity to have a second Christmas with the other half of their family; and, secondly, the plethora of online shopping platforms means that sale bargains – in the past only available in-store from Boxing Day onwards – can be secured from the comfort of the sofa even on Christmas Day.
For many of those consumers who do venture out on Boxing Day, it is now much more of a leisure based trip, and consequently the largest uplift in footfall occurs post lunchtime and into the afternoon as consumers browse stores and visit hospitality venues. While the demand for hospitality carries over to 27th December, trips for shopping to retail stores becomes more significant as consumers look to capture post Christmas discounts. In addition, the fact that 27th December is a normal trading day, and therefore not subject to bank holiday opening hours, makes it likely that spending will be higher on 27th December than on Boxing Day. This has been exacerbated over the last few years as many retailers have taken the decision to keep their stores closed on Boxing Day, which means the first opportunity for consumers to shop the entire breadth of the high street post Christmas is 27th December.
Beauclair’s spending data supports this, identifying that in 2022 and 2023 spending in towns and cities on 27th December was nearly double that on Boxing Day (+92% in 2022 and +81% in 2023). We expect this trend to continue this year with a +90% increase from Boxing Day, particularly as 27th December falls on a Friday, which typically is a more significant shopping day than mid week days.
Whilst Boxing Day has become less significant as trading day than 27th December, spending on 26th December 2023 rose marginally from 26th December 2022, by +0.3%. On 27th December 2023, however, spending was -5% lower than on 27th December 2022 which is likely to reflect the tougher trading conditions last year due to the impact of high inflation and interest rates on household budgets.
This year, with 26th and 27th December falling on Thursday and Friday, spending is expected to be marginally above last year on both days; +1% higher on Boxing Day and +3% higher on 27th December.
| Increase in spend in towns and cities from day to day post Christmas | ||||||||
| Actual – 2022 | Actual – 2023 | Forecast – 2024 | ||||||
| Tue | 27/12/2022 | 92% | Wed | 27/12/2023 | 81% | Fri | 27/12/2024 | 90% |
| Wed | 28/12/2022 | 5% | Thu | 28/12/2023 | 18% | Sat | 28/12/2024 | 30% |
| Thu | 29/12/2022 | 9% | Fri | 29/12/2023 | 15% | Sun | 29/12/2024 | -15% |
| Fri | 30/12/2022 | 13% | Sat | 30/12/2023 | -2% | Mon | 30/12/2024 | 20% |
| Sat | 31/12/2022 | -12% | Sun | 31/12/2023 | -34% | Tue | 31/12/2024 | -15% |
| Sun | 01/01/2023 | -74% | Mon | 01/01/2024 | -63% | Wed | 01/01/2025 | -50% |
| Annual % change in spending in UK towns and cities by day | |||||
| 2023 | Forecast – 2024 | ||||
| Tue | 26/12/2023 | 0.3% | Thu | 26/12/2024 | 1% |
| Wed | 27/12/2023 | -5% | Fri | 27/12/2024 | 3% |
| Thu | 28/12/2023 | 6% | Sat | 28/12/2024 | 4% |
| Fri | 29/12/2023 | 13% | Sun | 29/12/2024 | -10% |
| Sat | 30/12/2023 | -2% | Mon | 30/12/2024 | -15% |
| Sun | 31/12/2023 | -27% | Tue | 31/12/2024 | 5% |
| Mon | 01/01/2024 | 3% | Wed | 01/01/2025 | -1% |
Notes
Evidence of spending in UK towns and cities is provided by Beauclair which specialises in delivering big data for the benefit of local communities, creating positive social impact. Domestic spending data is obtained from debit card transactions from UK bank accounts. www.beauclairdata.co.uk
Diane Wehrle is Beauclair’s Brand Ambassador, delivering monthly insights on spending in UK towns and cities. Diane has over three decades of experience supporting high streets and retail destinations in understanding their performance, and focuses on transforming data into relevant and actionable insights to drive destination and business performance. Diane is regarded as one of the leading experts high streets and retail destinations and is a regular commentator on the performance of high streets and retail in the media. www.rendleintelligenceandinsights.com
Diane Wehrle collaborated with AL Marketing (www.almarketing.com) to publish their “Golden Quarter Survey 2024” which tested the opinions of shoppers on Black Friday and Christmas. The report can be downloaded here