Beauclair Data have ranked 62 Nationwide Cites based on key performance indicators for growth; Retail spend, Customer numbers and Transaction volumes. We have looked at trends YTD 2023 vs YTD 2022 and YTD 2023 vs YTD 2019.
There is clear evidence of stronger Northern Growth with 8 of the Top 10 Scoring Cities being North of the Severn-Trent line and 8 of the Bottom 10 Scoring Cities being in the South.
Lots of dynamics at play, but our hypothesis are;
- higher mortgages in the South are likely to be biting hard during this time of escalating interest rates
- More impact in the South from home-working, as higher typical commuter costs and times make this an attractive option, changing consumer work-patterns permanently.
How did your town city centre rank? What do you think is behind your performance?
We wanted to look at how the considerable impact on our way of shopping on the high street has been playing out across the country. First it was the lockdowns as a result of the Covid pandemic, then it was the cost of living crisis, now it’s inflation and the jump in interest rates that are affecting people’s disposable income. On top of all these, there’s the continuing shift towards online shopping. Are there commonalities among those Cities who have fared well or not?
TOP 10 Scoring Cities, with 8 of the top ten being in the North.
These cities are up on both 2022 and especially 2019 – suggesting that the move to hybrid working has not been as impactful – they do not have such a large commuting field, nor are they as influenced by the pull from London.
| CIty | RANK | SEVERN-TRENT LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley | 1 | South |
| Barnsley | 2 | North |
| Glasgow | 3 | North |
| Warrington | 4 | North |
| Wakefield | 5 | North |
| Blackpool | 6 | North |
| Doncaster | 7 | North |
| Aldershot | 8 | South |
| Edinburgh | 9 | North |
| Newcastle | 10 | North |
BOTTOM 10 Scoring Cities, with 8 of the bottom ten bring in the South
Home working will be playing a part, potentially impacting the South more due it’s typically higher commuter costs and distances. The cost of living – in particular the hike in mortgage rates – is likely to disproportionately hit southern England, which has traditionally seen the highest house values and consequently the highest mortgage repayments
| CITY | RANKING | SEVERN-TRENT LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 53 | South |
| Southend | 54 | South |
| Bristol | 55 | South |
| Basildon | 56 | South |
| Oxford | 57 | South |
| Huddersfield | 58 | North |
| Coventry | 59 | South |
| Bournemouth | 60 | South |
| Slough | 61 | South |
| Middlesbrough | 62 | North |
MID-RANKING Scoring Cities:
| CITY | RANKING | SEVERN-TRENT LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Gloucester | 11 | South |
| Luton | 12 | South |
| Birkenhead | 13 | North |
| Milton Keynes | 14 | South |
| Norwich | 15 | South |
| Burnley | 16 | North |
| Worthing | 17 | South |
| Nottingham | 18 | South |
| Swansea | 19 | North |
| Preston | 20 | North |
| Blackburn | 21 | North |
| Telford | 22 | North |
| Plymouth | 23 | South |
| Liverpool | 24 | North |
| Leicester | 25 | South |
| Dundee | 26 | North |
| Leeds | 27 | North |
| Aberdeen | 28 | North |
| York | 29 | North |
| Chatham | 30 | South |
| Northampton | 31 | South |
| Cardiff | 32 | North |
| Exeter | 33 | South |
| Sunderland | 34 | North |
| Cambridge | 35 | South |
| Newport | 36 | North |
| Manchester | 37 | North |
| Southampton | 38 | South |
| Hull | 39 | North |
| Birmingham | 40 | North |
| Portsmouth | 41 | South |
| Sheffield | 42 | North |
| Stoke | 43 | North |
| Swindon | 44 | South |
| Mansfield | 45 | North |
| Reading | 46 | South |
| London | 47 | South |
| Brighton | 48 | South |
| Derby | 49 | North |
| Peterborough | 50 | South |
| Bradford | 51 | North |
| Wigan | 52 | North |
Wherever your town or city centre is on the list, Beauclair Data can help you dig into these trends at a local level, understand what is behind them and make better decisions to power growth. Please contact Nicki@beauclairdata.co.uk for more information.
KEY METRIC DEFINITINONS:
1. Number of customers who have visited each city in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the number YTD 2022
2. Number of customers who have visited each city in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the number YTD 2019
3. Total volume of retail transactions – in 5 core retail sectors* – in each city centre in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the value YTD 2022
4. Total volume of retail transactions – in 5 core retail sectors* – in each city centre in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the value YTD 2019
5. Value of spend – in 5 core retail sectors* – in each city in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the value YTD 2022
6. Value of spend – in 5 core retail sectors* – in each city in the Year to Date July 2023, compared to the value YTD 2019